The Trump plan: 'Peace to Prosperity' (2020)
A demilitarised Palestinian state on about 70% of the West Bank, plus Gaza and land swaps. Israel annexes the settlements and the Jordan Valley, and $50 billion of investment is promised.
What happens to Israeli Jews
Israel keeps all settlements and the Jordan Valley, and gains recognition and security control. Settlers stay where they are.
What happens to Palestinians
A state on most of the West Bank and Gaza, but in non-contiguous pieces linked by roads and tunnels, demilitarised and with Israeli security control. No return to Israel. The capital is outside Jerusalem's historic core.
What it requires
- Israel annexing about 30% of the West Bank: all settlements and most of the Jordan Valley, as enclaves inside and around a Palestinian state
- A Palestinian state on the rest (about 67–71% of the West Bank with swaps) plus Gaza, demilitarised, with Israel in charge of overall security and borders
- A capital in the outskirts of East Jerusalem beyond the separation barrier (e.g. Abu Dis), with Jerusalem otherwise united under Israel
- No return of refugees to Israel; return to the Palestinian state, limited and subject to Israeli agreement, plus compensation
- Hamas disarmed and Gaza under a government accepting the plan
- About $50 billion in international investment over ten years
- Optionally, transferring the 'Triangle' Arab towns inside Israel to the Palestinian state, if both sides agree
Who supports it
Released 28 January 2020 with the support of Netanyahu and Gantz. The Palestinian Authority and the Arab League rejected it; in PCPSR polling, about 80% of Palestinians rejected it and 91% said it would create a state that was neither independent nor sovereign ⚠. Israel's planned annexation was suspended in August 2020 in exchange for normalisation with the UAE (the Abraham Accords).
What history says
- Allon Plan (1967): Israel keeps the Jordan Valley and returns the populated highlands, the plan's ancestor
- Bantustans in apartheid South Africa: the comparison its critics made, for the enclave map
- The Abraham Accords (2020): the plan's annexation was traded for normalisation, so the regional part went ahead without the Palestinian part
The hard questions
- Can a state be sovereign if another state controls its borders, airspace and security, and surrounds its enclaves?
- Why would Palestinians accept less than every earlier offer (Camp David, Taba, Olmert), and why would Israel accept more after 2005 and October 7?
- What happens to the Triangle towns' Arab citizens, who were never asked whether they want to be moved to another state?