The original Mandate: a confederation on both banks of the Jordan
Go back to the map before 1922, when the Mandate for Palestine still included Transjordan: a confederation of Israel, a Palestinian state and Jordan across both banks of the river, in which Jews are a minority of the whole but keep their own state, army and immigration, and Palestinians gain room, a state and a shared economy.
What happens to Israeli Jews
A state and an army of their own, which is what safety requires, without having to be a majority of the whole land or rule over Palestinians. The bet is that safety comes from the power to defend yourself, not from numbers (see 'majority-is-safety').
What happens to Palestinians
A state, and a much larger space to live, work and settle across both banks, with most Palestinians already on the east bank (Jordan) or west of the river joined in one framework.
What it requires
- Jordan's monarchy agreeing to share sovereignty, which it has consistently refused for fear of becoming the 'alternative homeland'
- Israel accepting that its security depends partly on confederal institutions
- Guaranteed self-defence for each member, so that being a minority in the whole doesn't mean depending on others' goodwill
- A solution for refugees inside the larger area, including resettlement on the east bank by choice
Who supports it
Rarely proposed today, and no government runs on it. Its historical roots: the Mandate for Palestine originally covered Transjordan until Britain separated it in 1922; the Faisal–Weizmann Agreement (1919) imagined Jewish settlement in Palestine within a larger Arab framework; the British Morrison–Grady plan (1946) proposed Jewish and Arab provinces under a federal government ⚠. The idea of Jews as a self-defending minority inside a larger whole is the opposite of the 'majority is safety' logic, which is why it's worth setting out even though almost nobody proposes it.
What history says
- The Mandate map of 1920–22, before Transjordan was separated
- The Faisal–Weizmann Agreement (1919)
- Federal or confederal systems with strong member states, such as Switzerland's cantons or the United Arab Emirates
The hard questions
- Would Jordan's king, and Jordanians, accept it, given their fear of being turned into the Palestinian state?
- Can a minority with its own army be safe inside a larger union, or would each army become the other's threat?
- Does it answer the 'from the river to the sea' slogans by making the river matter less, or give both sides more to fight over?