Solutions

Before any solution: governments that can deliver it

Whatever the destination, both sides need governments able to negotiate, compromise and carry out an agreement. Today neither has one.

In Israel

Israelis debate this themselves: electoral reform, a constitution and the limits of the courts were at the centre of the 2023 protests. Electing the prime minister directly was tried from 1996 to 2001 and abandoned.

Among Palestinians

Palestinian pollsters regularly find large majorities who see the PA as corrupt and want President Abbas to step down. The PA answers that elections can't be held under occupation and without a vote in East Jerusalem.

What it takes

  • Israel: a constitution. The Basic Laws were meant to become one, and the 2023 judicial overhaul and the mass protests against it showed how contested the basic rules still are.
  • Israel: an electoral system in which small parties can't hold a coalition hostage. With national list voting and a 3.25% threshold, kingmakers on the far right or among the Haredi parties can block any move on the conflict. There were five elections between 2019 and 2022.
  • Israel: shared duties for every community. In June 2024 the Supreme Court ordered the army to draft Haredi yeshiva students, and the dispute over drafting them has shaken governing coalitions since. A state that can't share military service can hardly share a peace agreement.
  • Palestinians: elections. The last legislative election was in 2006 and the last presidential one in 2005; President Abbas's term expired in 2009, and the 2021 elections were cancelled.
  • Palestinians: one authority with a monopoly on arms. Since 2007, Gaza (Hamas) and the West Bank (the PA) have had rival governments.
  • Both: institutions that outlast a change of leader, so that agreements survive the people who signed them

Palestinian figures: PCPSR polls (Ramallah); check the latest before quoting numbers.

What history says

  • Israel 1996–2001: direct election of the prime minister, meant to reduce small-party leverage. It fragmented the Knesset further and was repealed.
  • The 2006 Palestinian election: won by Hamas, rejected by Israel and the West, and followed by the 2007 split. Elections alone don't make a government that can deliver.
  • Northern Ireland: power-sharing institutions had to be built (1998) for the settlement to hold, and they collapsed several times when they failed.

The hard questions

  • Can Israel reform its system while the coalition parties that benefit from it hold the votes?
  • Would Palestinian elections today be won by parties that reject a settlement, and what then?
  • Who negotiates in the meantime, and with what mandate?

Arguments that point here

“They're only negotiating to buy time. / The ceasefire is a trick.”actual argument?“The Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.”actual argument?◆ "What about you?"◆ "They all…"“The Palestinians all think the same. / Everyone supports the resistance.”actual argument?“Israel's real goal is 'Greater Israel' — from the Nile to the Euphrates.”common◆ Motte and bailey◆ Which territory?◆ "They all…"