Deadlocks · defusion · coercive
Remove the other side's government
Destroy Hamas, topple the Iranian regime, or replace a Palestinian or Israeli leadership from outside, on the theory that the people underneath would then make peace.
The most common Israeli war aim of the Gaza war ('destroy Hamas's military and governing capabilities'), and a long-standing argument about Iran's regime; its mirror is the hope that outside pressure will bring down an Israeli government. It rests on a real observation: many Gazans distrusted Hamas and many Iranians oppose their regime (see 'Who speaks for them?').
The deadlocks it addresses
Where it has been tried
- Iraq, 2003 — failed. Removing the regime without a plan for what followed produced insurgency, sectarian war and ISIS.
- Libya, 2011 — failed. The regime fell; the state fell with it.
- Lebanon, 1982 — failed. Israel expelled the PLO from Beirut and backed a friendly president, who was assassinated; Hezbollah rose in the vacuum.
- Germany and Japan, 1945 — worked. Total defeat followed by years of occupation and massive reconstruction, a scale of commitment no one proposes here.
What you have to believe for it to work
- Something better is ready to take over
- Military force can remove a movement, not only its leaders
These are the assumptions the future solution builder will let you set yourself.
What has to happen first
- A governing alternative with local legitimacy
- A long, costly commitment to what comes after
How it can fail
- A vacuum filled by something worse
- Martyrdom that strengthens the movement
- Civilian cost that recruits the next generation