Theme
“Governments made peace; peoples didn't”
Egypt, Jordan and the Abraham Accords states have treaties and trade with Israel, while their publics remain among the most hostile to it. Is that peace, or just an arrangement between elites?
Why people find it convincing
- In the 2022 Arab Opinion Index, 84% of respondents across the Arab world opposed their country recognising Israel; only 8% supported it.
- Egypt has had a peace treaty with Israel since 1979 and close security cooperation in Sinai, yet professional syndicates there punish members for 'normalisation'.
- Positive views of the Abraham Accords in Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia fell to around 20–25% within a few years, and dropped further after October 2023.
The picture
The contrast: treaties above, hostility below.
Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994) made peace with Israel and have kept it through wars, intifadas and Gaza. Their armies cooperate with Israel's, and Israeli gas flows to Egypt. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan normalised relations in 2020, driven by state interests: Iran, trade, technology, US deals. Public opinion moved the other way. In the 2022 Arab Opinion Index, 84% opposed recognising Israel, with Morocco the most open at around 20% in favour. After the Gaza war, opposition rose further, for example in Saudi Arabia from 38% to 68%. In Egypt and Jordan, 'normalisation' is policed socially: unions and syndicates sanction members who deal with Israelis (see 'The purity loop').
Traps here:◆ The purity loop
dataArab Center for Research and Policy Studies (Doha), Arab Opinion Index 2022 (2022) ⚠
84% oppose recognition, 8% support; Morocco ~20% support. Post-2023 figures from the Index's Gaza survey. Qatar-based institute — note its funding in the org pages. Verify figures.
dataWashington Institute for Near East Policy, polls on Arab public opinion and the Abraham Accords ⚠
Positive views ~19–25% in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE; Bahrain 45% (Nov 2020) → ~20%. US think tank. Verify figures and dates.
Why it still matters: cold peace has held.
The Egyptian peace has lasted more than 45 years, through every Gaza war and two intifadas; the Jordanian one more than 30. A peace kept by governments against public mood is fragile in feeling but has proved durable in fact. It also shows what each side can offer the other without winning hearts first. The open question for any solution is whether peace between Israelis and Palestinians could work the same way. They share one land rather than a border, so elite arrangements are harder to insulate from the street.
Traps here:◆ Negotiation as a weapon
Two arguments that grow from it.
Pro-Israel: 'the Arab world is making peace; the Palestinians are no longer the key.' The treaties are real, but the polls show the Palestinian question is still what blocks peace between peoples, and the war after 2023 froze further normalisation. Pro-Palestinian: 'normalisation is betrayal; the Arab peoples reject Israel.' The polls support the second half, but the treaties have also brought Egyptians and Jordanians decades without war, and many Palestinians work, trade and study through them. Both arguments take one level, the state or the street, for the whole picture.
Traps here:◆ The exception as proof