Deadlocks · defusion
Third-party security guarantees
An outside force or guarantor takes on part of the security burden, so that neither side has to trust the other with its safety on day one.
Monitors, peacekeepers or a guaranteeing power stand between the parties and verify that commitments are kept: demilitarised zones, early-warning stations, joint patrols, a guarantor with the will to act.
The deadlocks it addresses
Where it has been tried
- The Multinational Force and Observers in Sinai (since 1982) — worked. A small, US-backed force verifying the Egypt–Israel treaty's demilitarisation; both sides wanted the treaty to hold, and the force has no mandate to fight.
- UNIFIL in southern Lebanon (since 1978) — failed. It couldn't or wouldn't stop Hezbollah's military build-up, which is why Israelis distrust international forces.
- The Temporary International Presence in Hebron (1997–2019) — partly. Observers reported but couldn't act; Israel ended the mandate in 2019.
What you have to believe for it to work
- A guarantor would stay and act when tested
- The weaker side would accept outside forces on its territory
These are the assumptions the future solution builder will let you set yourself.
What has to happen first
- A political agreement the guarantee serves
- A guarantor both sides accept, with a clear mandate and staying power
How it can fail
- A force that watches but can't act becomes cover for rearmament
- Its first casualties can end its mandate