Theme
“That's what the people want.”
A people's will is read off its government, its armed groups or its loudest voices. Elections are the one direct measure of how much support each aim has; this autumn one is being held and one has been postponed.
Why people find it convincing
- Governments and armed groups speak loudest, so what they say sounds like what everyone thinks.
- Where no vote has been held, polls and the people in power fill the gap, and the gap is easy to forget.
The picture
Two votes this autumn: one held, one postponed.
Two votes were due within weeks of each other. Israel's general election is set for 27 October 2026, the Knesset having served its full term for the first time since 1988 (Al Jazeera). The Palestinian legislative election had been set by presidential decree for 28 November 2026, the first since 2006; the Legislative Council has been inactive since 2007 and was dissolved in 2018, and a June decree enlarged it from 132 to 200 seats (Anadolu). On 8 October the Palestinian Authority's vice president told France it would be postponed, saying the conditions it was based on 'had failed to materialize' and raising 'concerns about whether an inclusive, free, and fair election could be held', with logistical problems in East Jerusalem and Gaza; Islamic Jihad's deputy leader said the factions meeting in Cairo had 'agreed to postpone', while Fatah said it 'remains committed to holding elections' (The Media Line, 9 October 2026). On 10 October Abbas set the new date, 11 September 2027, 'citing Israeli-imposed obstacles'; Israel's foreign minister called that 'yet another ridiculous lie designed to evade responsibility and accountability'. Palestinian would-be candidates said the delay put the 'status quo ahead of the public interest'; a Palestinian pollster, Nabil Kukali, said most Palestinians would understand a delay if voting in East Jerusalem and Gaza truly could not happen; an Israeli researcher said East Jerusalem was being used 'as a pretext to cancel the vote, as Abbas did in 2021' (Jerusalem Post, 11 October 2026). The reasons are disputed; the delay is not. A presidential vote had been planned for early 2027. Local elections did take place on 25 April 2026, in the West Bank and in Deir al-Balah in Gaza, with turnout of 56% and 23%; Hamas did not run, and candidates first had to commit to the PLO's programme and 'international obligations', wording softened in January after five factions objected (ECFR).
pressAl Jazeera, Simon Speakman Cordall, 'Knesset dissolves: How will Israel vote in October's general election?' (17 July 2026) (2026) incident ✓
Read 2026-10-14. 'The Knesset, Israel's unicameral parliament, will dissolve on Friday before national elections slated for October 27, 2026, marking the first time the body has seen out its full term since 1988.'
pressAnadolu Agency, Lina Altawell, 'Palestinian election commission announces timetable for Nov. 28 legislative vote' (23 July 2026) (2026) incident ✓
Read 2026-10-14. 'On July 9, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree setting Nov. 28, 2026, as the date for legislative elections in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.' 'In June, Abbas issued a decree-law amending the general elections law, increasing the number of Legislative Council members from 132 to 200, lowering the candidacy age from 28 to 23, reducing the electoral threshold from 2% to 1%'. 'The Palestinian Legislative Council has been inactive since 2007 following the Palestinian political split. Abbas dissolved it in 2018, while the last legislative elections were held in 2006.' 'presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the first quarter of 2027.' Anadolu is Turkey's state news agency.
pressThe Media Line, 'Palestinian Authority Postpones First Parliamentary Elections in 20 Years' (9 October 2026) (2026) incident ✓
Read 2026-10-14. 'The Palestinian Authority has confirmed that parliamentary elections scheduled for November 28, 2026, will be postponed for several months, citing political, security, economic, and logistical obstacles'; Vice President Hussein al-Sheikh 'notified France of the delay in an official letter dated October 8, 2026', saying 'anticipated political, security, and economic conditions had failed to materialize' and raising 'concerns about whether an inclusive, free, and fair election could be held'; 'logistical problems in East Jerusalem and war-ravaged Gaza'. Islamic Jihad's Mohammed al-Hindi: the factions in Cairo 'agreed to postpone the upcoming Palestinian elections'; Fatah's spokesman: the party 'remains committed to holding elections'. The article says the vote was 'to select the 132 members' of the Council (Anadolu reports a June decree raising the number to 200). A new date is not given in the article read.
referenceEuropean Council on Foreign Relations, Mapping Palestinian Politics, 'Local Elections (2026)' (2026) incident ✓
Read 2026-10-14. Local elections 'took place on 25 April 2026 in the West Bank and Deir al-Balah (Gaza). Voter turn out was 56% in the West Bank and 23% in Deir al-Balah'; 'dominated by Fatah's electoral lists … and independents (often composed of Fatah members …)'; 'Hamas abstained though it allowed elections to proceed in Gaza's Deir al-Balah'. Candidates had to 'commit to the Palestine Liberation Organisation's program, its international obligations and the decisions of international legitimacy'; five factions objected; in January 2026 the wording was changed to 'commit to the Palestine Liberation Organisation as the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, its political and national programme, and relevant decisions of international legitimacy'. ECFR is a European think tank.
pressThe Jerusalem Post, Danielle Greyman-Kennard, ''Disregarded hopes of millions': Palestinians angered after Abbas again postpones PLC elections' (11 October 2026) (2026) incident ✓
Read 2026-10-14. 'Abbas announced on Saturday that the elections, originally scheduled for November 28, would be postponed until September 11, 2027, citing Israeli-imposed obstacles and arguing that Palestinian factions had agreed there was no choice but to delay the vote.' Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar: 'yet another ridiculous lie designed to evade responsibility and accountability.' Candidates: the PA is putting the 'status quo ahead of the public interest'. Dr. Nabil Kukali (Palestinian Center for Public Opinion): the majority 'would likely understand a postponement if elections could not take place in east Jerusalem and Gaza, provided the public saw a genuine desire to hold them'. New Path leader Samer Sinijlawi: 'These efforts disregarded the hopes of millions of Palestinians who had waited two decades'. Yoni Ben-Menachem (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) says he was told the vice-president 'had explicitly cited east Jerusalem as a pretext to cancel the vote, as Abbas did in 2021'.
Working it out: what each vote can measure, and what fills the gap where there is none.
A vote measures how much of a society stands behind each aim; that is why it matters for arguments that read a people's will off its government or its loudest voices. On the Israeli side, the election will show how much support goes to the parties whose leaders this site quotes for annexation and expulsion aims. One poll in early October gave Otzma Yehudit 9 seats and Religious Zionism with Zehut 6, together 15 of 120, or 12.5% (this page's arithmetic), and put the outgoing coalition at 60, one short of a majority (i24NEWS / Direct Polls, 518 respondents, ±4.3%). A Maariv poll released the next day had the two parties at 8 and 6, 14 seats or about 11.7% (this page's arithmetic), but put the coalition at 52, not 60 (Jerusalem Post report): two pollsters in the same week differ by eight seats on the number that decides who governs, so a single poll is a snapshot, not a forecast. The same Maariv poll found 59% of Israelis opposed to an Arab party joining the next coalition, 36% in favour. On the Palestinian side, there has been no national vote for twenty years, so claims about what 'the Palestinians' want rest on opinion polls (see 'Who speaks for them?'). The latest before the postponement, PSR's of August 2026 (1,270 respondents in the West Bank and Gaza, margin 3.5%), found Hamas's overall support down to 24% from 35% ten months earlier, level with Fatah's 24%; among likely voters, Fatah 32%, Hamas 29% and other lists 18%; and 44% saying 'neither Hamas nor Fatah deserves to lead'. It also found 44% expecting the vote not to be held on schedule, which is what happened. Beyond polls, there are the April local elections, in which Hamas did not take part and candidates had to accept the PLO's programme, and whoever happens to hold power. The worst case for each side. For 'the Palestinian leadership speaks for its people': no legislature has been elected since 2006, and the vote meant to change that has been postponed. For 'the Palestinians support Hamas': no vote shows it, and the latest poll puts Hamas at 24% overall and 29% of likely voters, a contender, not a majority. For 'the Palestinians want peace': the same poll finds 44% for a two-state solution and 50% against, though 56% back a specific formula on the 1967 borders; a poll, with its limits, not a vote. For 'Israel's extremists are a fringe': they sit in the outgoing government, and the vote will show their weight. For 'Israel is its extremists': the same poll puts their two parties at about an eighth of the seats.
What the labels (Holds, Open, Arguable …) mean
datai24NEWS / Direct Polls (Zuriel Sharon), seat poll published 8 October 2026 (fieldwork 7 October) (2026) aggregate ✓
Read 2026-10-14. Seats if elections were held then: Likud 26; Yashar (Eisenkot) 20; B'Yachad (Bennett) 11; The Democrats (Golan) 10; Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) 9; United Torah Judaism 8; Shas 7; Yisrael Beiteinu 7; Joint List 7; Religious Zionism and Zehut 6; Ra'am 5; Amcha Yisrael (Winter) 4. 'By bloc, the coalition bloc received 60 seats, the opposition bloc received 48 seats, and the Arab parties received 12 seats.' '518 adult respondents'; 'sampling error is ±4.3% with a 95% probability'. One poll by one pollster.
pressAnadolu Agency, Lina Altawell, 'Palestinian election commission announces timetable for Nov. 28 legislative vote' (23 July 2026) (2026) incident ✓
Read 2026-10-14. 'On July 9, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree setting Nov. 28, 2026, as the date for legislative elections in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.' 'In June, Abbas issued a decree-law amending the general elections law, increasing the number of Legislative Council members from 132 to 200, lowering the candidacy age from 28 to 23, reducing the electoral threshold from 2% to 1%'. 'The Palestinian Legislative Council has been inactive since 2007 following the Palestinian political split. Abbas dissolved it in 2018, while the last legislative elections were held in 2006.' 'presidential elections are scheduled to be held in the first quarter of 2027.' Anadolu is Turkey's state news agency.
pressThe Media Line, 'Palestinian Authority Postpones First Parliamentary Elections in 20 Years' (9 October 2026) (2026) incident ✓
Read 2026-10-14. 'The Palestinian Authority has confirmed that parliamentary elections scheduled for November 28, 2026, will be postponed for several months, citing political, security, economic, and logistical obstacles'; Vice President Hussein al-Sheikh 'notified France of the delay in an official letter dated October 8, 2026', saying 'anticipated political, security, and economic conditions had failed to materialize' and raising 'concerns about whether an inclusive, free, and fair election could be held'; 'logistical problems in East Jerusalem and war-ravaged Gaza'. Islamic Jihad's Mohammed al-Hindi: the factions in Cairo 'agreed to postpone the upcoming Palestinian elections'; Fatah's spokesman: the party 'remains committed to holding elections'. The article says the vote was 'to select the 132 members' of the Council (Anadolu reports a June decree raising the number to 200). A new date is not given in the article read.
referenceEuropean Council on Foreign Relations, Mapping Palestinian Politics, 'Local Elections (2026)' (2026) incident ✓
Read 2026-10-14. Local elections 'took place on 25 April 2026 in the West Bank and Deir al-Balah (Gaza). Voter turn out was 56% in the West Bank and 23% in Deir al-Balah'; 'dominated by Fatah's electoral lists … and independents (often composed of Fatah members …)'; 'Hamas abstained though it allowed elections to proceed in Gaza's Deir al-Balah'. Candidates had to 'commit to the Palestine Liberation Organisation's program, its international obligations and the decisions of international legitimacy'; five factions objected; in January 2026 the wording was changed to 'commit to the Palestine Liberation Organisation as the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, its political and national programme, and relevant decisions of international legitimacy'. ECFR is a European think tank.
dataThe Jerusalem Post, Moshe Cohen, report of the Maariv poll released 9 October 2026 (2026) aggregate ✓
Read 2026-10-14. 'the coalition bloc into a tie with the opposition bloc at 52 seats each, according to a Maariv poll released Friday'; 'The Arab parties maintained their combined strength of 12 seats.' Seats: Yashar 21, Likud 20, B'yachad 13, The Democrats 9, Yisrael Beytenu 9, Otzma Yehudit 8, Joint Arab List 7, United Torah Judaism 7, Shas 7, Religious Zionist Party 6, Ra'am 5, Amcha Yisrael 4, the Reservists and Economic Party 4. '59% of Israelis oppose an Arab party joining the governing coalition after the elections, while 36% support such a move'. Sample size and margin are not given in the report read; the pollster's name is not given beyond Maariv.
dataPalestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR), Press Release: Public Opinion Poll No. 97 (12 August 2026; fieldwork 5–8 August 2026) (2026) aggregate ✓
Read 2026-10-14. 'The sample consisted of 1,270 respondents: 830 interviewed in the West Bank across 83 residential localities and 440 in the Gaza Strip across 44 localities. The margin of error was 3.5%.' 'Hamas has also experienced a significant decline in popularity. Its overall support has fallen to 24%, compared with 35% ten months earlier, while Fatah remains at 24%. Among likely voters, Fatah would receive 32% and Hamas 29%, with third forces receiving 18%. Confidence in Hamas's ability to represent Palestinians has also declined, from 41% to 28%, while 44% now say that neither Hamas nor Fatah deserves to lead.' 'Forty-nine percent say they believe that the legislative elections will indeed be held next November, while 44% believe that the elections will not be held on schedule.' 'Support for the two-state solution stands at 44%, while 50% oppose it'; 'support for a specific two-state formula based on the 1967 borders is considerably higher, at 56%'. In Gaza, interviews were conducted 'in areas west, south, and north of what has become known as the “Yellow Line,” areas where there is no Israeli military presence'; 'Interviews with residents of areas under Israeli military occupation, such as Rafah and parts of northern Gaza and Khan Younis, were conducted in shelters.' Also from the release: 'Support for armed struggle as the most effective means of achieving statehood fell from four out of ten to less than three out of ten, while support for negotiations rose from a little over a third to a little less than half, its highest level in four years'; 'half still believe armed resistance has been effective'; '72% oppose Hamas disarming before Israel fully withdraws from Gaza'. 'Only 20% believe Hamas emerged victorious, 15% believe Israel did, and 60% believe neither side won.'
Written before the results: what each outcome would change.
What would change this site's readings, written before the results so they can be checked afterwards (see 'What happened next?'). If Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism gain seats and return to government, the reading that their aims are a fringe current weakens; if they shrink or are left out of the next coalition, it strengthens. Either way the result is one election, not a people's settled view. If the Palestinian legislative vote is held on 11 September 2027, with Hamas and the other factions running under agreed terms, it will be the first measure in twenty years of how Palestinian support divides; if it is postponed again, the honest statement stays that no such measure exists, and the reasons given for each delay should be read, not assumed. This note will be updated after 27 October with the Israeli result, and when a Palestinian date is set.
datai24NEWS / Direct Polls (Zuriel Sharon), seat poll published 8 October 2026 (fieldwork 7 October) (2026) aggregate ✓
Read 2026-10-14. Seats if elections were held then: Likud 26; Yashar (Eisenkot) 20; B'Yachad (Bennett) 11; The Democrats (Golan) 10; Otzma Yehudit (Ben Gvir) 9; United Torah Judaism 8; Shas 7; Yisrael Beiteinu 7; Joint List 7; Religious Zionism and Zehut 6; Ra'am 5; Amcha Yisrael (Winter) 4. 'By bloc, the coalition bloc received 60 seats, the opposition bloc received 48 seats, and the Arab parties received 12 seats.' '518 adult respondents'; 'sampling error is ±4.3% with a 95% probability'. One poll by one pollster.
pressThe Media Line, 'Palestinian Authority Postpones First Parliamentary Elections in 20 Years' (9 October 2026) (2026) incident ✓
Read 2026-10-14. 'The Palestinian Authority has confirmed that parliamentary elections scheduled for November 28, 2026, will be postponed for several months, citing political, security, economic, and logistical obstacles'; Vice President Hussein al-Sheikh 'notified France of the delay in an official letter dated October 8, 2026', saying 'anticipated political, security, and economic conditions had failed to materialize' and raising 'concerns about whether an inclusive, free, and fair election could be held'; 'logistical problems in East Jerusalem and war-ravaged Gaza'. Islamic Jihad's Mohammed al-Hindi: the factions in Cairo 'agreed to postpone the upcoming Palestinian elections'; Fatah's spokesman: the party 'remains committed to holding elections'. The article says the vote was 'to select the 132 members' of the Council (Anadolu reports a June decree raising the number to 200). A new date is not given in the article read.
pressThe Jerusalem Post, Danielle Greyman-Kennard, ''Disregarded hopes of millions': Palestinians angered after Abbas again postpones PLC elections' (11 October 2026) (2026) incident ✓
Read 2026-10-14. 'Abbas announced on Saturday that the elections, originally scheduled for November 28, would be postponed until September 11, 2027, citing Israeli-imposed obstacles and arguing that Palestinian factions had agreed there was no choice but to delay the vote.' Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar: 'yet another ridiculous lie designed to evade responsibility and accountability.' Candidates: the PA is putting the 'status quo ahead of the public interest'. Dr. Nabil Kukali (Palestinian Center for Public Opinion): the majority 'would likely understand a postponement if elections could not take place in east Jerusalem and Gaza, provided the public saw a genuine desire to hold them'. New Path leader Samer Sinijlawi: 'These efforts disregarded the hopes of millions of Palestinians who had waited two decades'. Yoni Ben-Menachem (Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) says he was told the vice-president 'had explicitly cited east Jerusalem as a pretext to cancel the vote, as Abbas did in 2021'.